The market has been climbing a wall of worry for some time. Timing the market is difficult, but you can prepare for sell-offs by bolstering portfolios with bonds, commodities, or option-based strategies that offer structural protection and non-interest-rate dependent income.

Option markets are efficient; low volatility does not guarantee profits in buying, and high volatility doesn't guarantee profits in selling. We do not employ leverage; we use fully collateralized options with laddering methods to diversify risk and adapt to changing environments.

Timing is difficult, so we focus on preparing rather than predicting. Volatility is subdued relative to history, but we watch correlation carefully. We are leaning into hedges and reducing equity risk especially given concentrated exposure to select companies and valuations near all-time highs.

Gold has traditionally been a safe haven, with low to moderate correlation to major asset classes and inverse correlation to the US dollar. Central banks continue to buy gold, enabling dedollarization. Geopolitical risks and trade tensions support a continued bid for gold.