Outlines four key questions on Iran conflict: 1) Will US/Israel attack? Yes. 2) Will Iranian gov survive? Yes. 3) Will retaliation be significant or symbolic? Symbolic so far. 4) What will Iran retaliate against? US bases regionally so far, but attacks on oil facilities/Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out in coming hours/days.

Iran's economy is already dire, but this war is existential/military for leadership, not economic. Survival depends on military counter-attacks, not economy, in coming days/weeks.

Iran produces ~5% of global oil, not irreplaceable. Key risk is war expanding to wider region (Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar = 1/3 of global supply) or Strait of Hormuz disruption (20% of flows). OPEC+ quota increases may not hedge losses if oil can't exit Strait.

Physical threats more important than psychological. Middle East has seen continuous war/unprecedented escalation for 2.5 years, yet oil prices lower now ($71) than Oct 2023 ($85). Markets getting used to geopolitical escalation. Key question is physical disruption - this is most serious test in 2.5 years.