Market hasn't reacted much to conflict; it's obscuring a more important shift in market leadership from AI-driven Mag 7 to other parts of the economy that started end of last year.

Yes, it does. Oil prices are how geopolitical risk transmits to US economy. Rise in oil prices has put central banks on back foot, moving from easing to more hawkish stance. If that persists, it's a drag on growth.

Oil prices not overly bad for US economy as net exporter, but low-end consumers are hurt. Bifurcation between high and low-end consumers grows. Low-end consumers already pulling back spending. If oil stays high, it drags them down further, becomes a political issue ahead of midterms.

Ultimately, broad portfolio depends on corporate earnings and Fed. S&P earnings expecting mid-double digit growth into 2026, mirroring last year. Seeing big pickup in earnings growth among mid and small caps, supporting broadening market thesis.