Dollar strength can continue. It's about the duration of the war and if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. Higher oil/gas prices support the dollar through terms of trade, relative growth differentials (Europe underperforming US), and relative central bank reaction functions.

G4 duration has not been a safe haven. Markets are focused on near-term repricing higher in inflation expectations. The Fed is priced to cut, but can it cut when inflation starts above target and an energy shock pushes it further above? Our view was the Fed wouldn't cut this year anyway; the US economy is too strong. Higher oil/gas assumptions mean the Fed will not be cutting rates.

A bit of both, but not the right playbook. The likelihood of oil/gas prices staying very high for an economically meaningful time is much lower than Russia-Ukraine due to the military mismatch. Reasonable to assume the Strait reopens in a few months, so oil above $100 won't stay there structurally.

Inflation in Europe is not really a problem at this level; break-evens have repriced higher but are at target. Growth impact depends on duration and consumer expectations. If the rise is seen as temporary, growth impacts shouldn't be too significant, provided we avoid oil above $100 for six months. Europe is more negatively affected than the US, but globally we're still in a resilient growth backdrop.