Hank Paulson on Iran War, Inflation, and Market Risk

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Give us your preliminary take on what the war in Iran could mean for the US economy.

David

Hank Paulson

This is preliminary because it depends on how long it lasts. It will affect jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, petrochemicals, military spending, the deficit, and the dollar.

Hank Paulson

We know there's going to be inflationary pressures. We know interest rates are going to be higher longer.

Hank Paulson

Fertilizer prices will hit farmers and impact food prices. Airlines will be under pressure. Certain petrochemical companies and military contractors will do better. This is impacting the deficit.

Hank Paulson

If this war isn't extended, it's not good for the US economy, but we will weather it better than anyone else.

Hank Paulson

The biggest potential negative impact to the US economy is what it does to the global economy. This is a real global shock.

Hank Paulson

If it lasts a while, there's a danger that turbulence in the markets will spill over into the US. That would be perhaps the biggest risk.

Right now, the globe seems to be going in all different directions, with the US different from Europe, different from China.

David

Hank Paulson

There's much more sovereign debt, not just in the US, but in Japan and all around the world. You've got more debt and a diversity of economic performance.

Hank Paulson

The US economy is strong, China is weak. Different macroeconomic policies, different monetary policies around the world.

Hank Paulson

It's going to be very important to try to bring it together. The US should be talking with China and other major economies, monitoring what's going on, so they've got some basis to coordinate if and when there is a global crisis.

Where is that relationship between the United States and China right now?

David

Hank Paulson

This relationship is fraught for the foreseeable future. They are a strategic economic competitor. They're the adversary when it comes to military and security.

Hank Paulson

Our economies are deeply linked, which creates a kind of tension, but also a sort of stability. Neither country can afford a trade war right now.

Hank Paulson

This is what I would call a period of mutually assured economic disruption, which results in a kind of stability. Not from trust, but because the costs of escalation are so high.

Hank Paulson

Each side wants stability. At the upcoming summit, don't expect big breakthroughs. They'll want to preserve stability, work on implementing existing agreements.

Hank Paulson

They'll want to put together some kind of mechanism to monitor trade and set the rules and responses, hopefully do something on the investment side.

Hank Paulson

Ultimately this competition will be decided not by rhetoric or negotiation, but by how each country does domestically dealing with their economic and political challenges. In the US, I believe we have far less economic challenges than China.

Look at where we were then and where we are now. There is so much less fiscal headroom to deal with any of the disruption you talk about.

David

Hank Paulson

The deficit is $1 trillion. We're on a path to have it be $3 trillion by 2035. $1 trillion is $7,800 for every household.

Hank Paulson

This is on a path to destroy our economic well-being and our national security. The first rule of holes is to stop digging, and we're digging big time.

Hank Paulson

We're a rich country. There's plenty we could do if we begin to act. It's going to take increased revenues, taxes, and dealing with expenses.

Hank Paulson

You can raise revenues without a big drag on growth if you close preferences and loopholes in the tax code. You can't deal with the problem unless you deal with entitlements, Social Security and primarily health care.

Hank Paulson

Congress doesn't like to do unpleasant things until there is an immediate crisis.

Are we any closer to having that emergency break the glass plan today than we were in 2007?

David

Hank Paulson

I doubt it. There's so many things out there to deal with right now: wars in Ukraine, in Iran, all the conflict around the world, AI, the environment. But we should not forget the deficit.

As we look at the Iran war, does it pose a threat to the dollar's position?

David

Hank Paulson

Short term, what the war has shown is the dollar is, there's no other safe haven. The dollar was declining for a lot of reasons, but in a crisis, the dollar strengthened.

Hank Paulson

To the extent it adds to our deficit, it poses a risk, a longer term risk. That's why I really believe the independence of the Fed is so important right now.

Hank Paulson

The independence of the Fed increases the confidence that investors have in our economy, in our financial markets. At a time when we're piling on so much debt, I think it's really important that we have that.

Has confidence in the Fed's independence already been undermined?

David

Hank Paulson

There's issues that are raised. Kevin Warsh meets the tests for Fed Chairman. His job becomes more difficult because there's independence of the perception of independence.

Hank Paulson

How the transition between Jay Powell and Kevin Warsh is handled is either going to make Kevin's job more difficult or somewhat easier. Kevin won't have an easy job anyway.

Do we know what the risk is from private credit for the banking system, systemic risk?

David

Hank Paulson

We don't know. We have to go through a credit cycle. There's a preponderance of it going outside the banking system into the shadow markets.

Hank Paulson

We're not going to know until we go through a credit cycle. There's some chance it'll actually be better because banks are highly regulated and in a crisis regulators push them to sell, and private equity buys and holds it.

Hank Paulson

We didn't know with the mortgage crisis the extent of it. It's contagious and it can spread.

Hank Paulson

Right now we're in the United States of America, and we've got the strongest, most resilient economy in the world and the best companies in the world.

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