Market widely expecting 25 basis point cut from Fed, maybe couple dissents either way. Market pricing in 25%.

What happens if we don't get it? They certainly haven't prepared market for that. At end of day, what economy is going to do matters more than what Fed does. Market thinks Fed needs to cut to keep economy going.

Forward look matters. Updated SEP will likely show maybe 1-2 cuts next year, 1-2 cuts year after. Market waiting for Fed to go on hold for January meeting, then resume cutting in March. Data dependent, delayed data due to government shutdown. Most divided Fed board in 30 years.

Constructive on bank stocks. Slight bias for bigger banks benefiting from resurgence in capital markets activity, M&A, deregulation theme. Factors helping stocks this year: loan growth, expanding net interest margins, higher fee income, positive operating leverage, benign credit quality, buying back stock resulting in double-digit growth this year, all continue to 2026. Another year of double-digit earnings growth with valuations in line to slightly below historical averages.

Some regionals not benefiting from same economies of scale as bigger banks. Didn't have same degree of regulatory environment getting worse over last 15 years, won't benefit much from rollback. Industry needs to consolidate, some deals will go more smoothly than others.

Highly competitive, always been competitive. Number of banks in US halved in last 20 years, still have 4000 other banks competing. Still way too many banks, should consolidate sooner than next 20 years. Space for fintechs, forces banks to adapt. Top 20 banks spending $80 billion this year on technology to keep up and evolve.

Seeing both banks and banks getting together, and banks expanding financial services offering. Goldman Sachs getting deeper into ETFs, deeper into private equity platform, strategic partnership with T. Rowe Price to expand on retirement front. Industry growing both organically and inorganic.