Asks Jason Furman if the Fed is 'there yet' after holding rates steady.
speaker1
Jason Furman
We're looking pretty close; the Fed sounded happier due to unemployment ticking down and softness in inflation/labor data.
What could change the Fed's inflation outlook?
speaker1
Jason Furman
Risks: inflation expectations (some measures high), more tariff pass-through, and economic tailwinds (fiscal expansion, data centers, weak dollar) creating upward pressure.
Why haven't tariffs caused more inflation?
speaker1
Jason Furman
Businesses absorbed more than expected; some may be temporary; auto companies selling at a loss won't continue forever; tariffs have been dialed back from original levels.
Why has unemployment stabilized?
speaker1
Jason Furman
Mostly due to limited immigration supply; with aging workforce and low fertility, fewer jobs needed to keep unemployment constant.
Discusses Trump's comment on dollar seeking its own level and asks about weaker dollar implications.
speaker1
Jason Furman
Found Trump's statement refreshing; a weaker dollar could help reduce trade deficit but at expense of American consumers via higher prices.
Asks about turmoil in Japanese government bonds.
speaker1
Jason Furman
Normal rules of macroeconomics now applying in Japan; with inflation returning, investors want more compensation for lending.
Could geopolitical tensions and tariff retaliation affect economics?
speaker1
Jason Furman
Most countries didn't retaliate last year; future depends on direction of US tariffs - if increased, could see more retaliation.