Asks how the guest is positioned on tech given that everyone still seems on board to some extent despite frothiness concerns.
speaker1
Jeremiah Riethmiller
Says it's dangerous to bet against tech; current AI spending is different from 2000 bubble as it comes from revenue-generating companies. Spending is sustainable for now, but need to watch for over-leverage.
Notes cyclical AI funding and high leverage historically, suggests Fed ending QT could boost stocks, and asks if better days are ahead.
speaker1
Jeremiah Riethmiller
We can have slightly better days ahead. Market priced in great earnings (14-15% vs 7% expected) and Fed cutting 25bps. However, is cautious over next few months as labor market updates might be concerning and consumer confidence is declining.
Asks about divergence between gold at highs and Bitcoin down sharply, referencing Tom Lee's $100k Bitcoin forecast.
speaker1
Jeremiah Riethmiller
Notes crypto and gold ran together until 2 months ago, then Bitcoin diverged lower. Not a fan of cryptocurrency itself but likes the underlying tech. For investors, it's a high-volatility allocation requiring appropriate sizing and risk tolerance.
Asks for current investment ideas.
speaker1
Jeremiah Riethmiller
Equity markets challenging as positives are priced in. Currently diversified, leaning into infrastructure credit over equity for risk management. Emphasizes tax management via direct indexing due to significant gains in taxable accounts.
Presents mixed consumer data: store traffic down but Black Friday online sales up, though driven by higher prices, not more units.
speaker1
Jeremiah Riethmiller
Cautious on consumer spending. Good start to holidays but inflation baked in. Worries spending is pulled forward as shoppers seek deals. Skeptical of maintaining solid YoY growth given falling consumer confidence and rising unemployment.