Notes significant US military redeployment and new red lines from Trump on Iran's missile program and domestic protests. Highlights potential conflict point as Iran refuses to discuss missiles. Warns market participants are worried about regime change operation leading to regional conflict rather than contained engagement.

Points to regional allies taking situation seriously, citing Saudi defense minister in Washington as signal of concern about destabilizing conflict targeting energy infrastructure. For de-escalation, would watch for Trump walking back missile demands or Iran accepting serious enrichment curbs and inspectors. Warns US military assets in region and regime change talk would concern markets about broader conflict.

Chevron's 50% increase from 250k barrels base is not massive and over 18-24 months. Couple hundred thousand barrels feasible from Venezuela in 18 months, but million-plus barrels requires stable security, contracting, infrastructure improvements. Muted expectations from key players about near-term gains. Venezuela increase not sufficient offset if Middle East supply disruption occurs.