In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have a risen in recent months. Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index suggest that total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8% as well. These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up on balance over the course of this year on news about tariffs, as reflected in both market and survey-based measures.