Asks if current forces put year-end rally at risk
Jonathan
George Goncalves
We'll go through many cycles before typical year-end rally; data burden of proof is on strong jobs to turn off Fed
Asks about household survey data collection difficulties
Jonathan
George Goncalves
BLS has staffing issues affecting household survey collection
Asks if data will be stronger or weaker than expected
Lisa
George Goncalves
Alternative data points to weaker labor market, making it hard for Fed to back down
Questions where outperformance comes from if Fed cuts due to real problems
Lisa
George Goncalves
Accelerated weakness likely shows up more in Q1 than year-end
Challenges view that Q1 2026 won't see pickup as markets expect
Jonathan
George Goncalves
Small businesses not showing pickup yet, need much lower rates; job market gets worse before better