Venezuela oil deal is fluid; not economically significant to US, not a near-term needle mover. Path of least resistance for oil prices is probably lower, continuing past year's trend. More supply boosts disinflation (positive for economy) but negative for energy stocks.

Labor data confirms no-hire/no-fire trend, softening but not falling off a cliff. Longer-term treasuries have been rangebound for months; doesn't see them breaking out unless data moves significantly. Watching Friday jobs report (expecting softer print).

Unemployment increase magnitude matches prior recessions, but rise is slowest ever. Characterized by industry churn (youth, manufacturing, federal in recession; health/education strong). Hiring rate at cycle low but no major pickup in layoffs. 2026 may see private workforce stabilization without federal hiring aid.

Expects longer-term treasuries to stay rangebound near-term due to elevated uncertainty/instability (Venezuela, Greenland, Fed policy) keeping term premium high, putting lower bound on 10-year yields. Longer-term (rest of 2026), expects moderate uptick in longer-term yields and yield curve steepening. Fed may cut 1-2 times starting mid-year.