Yeah, it looks pretty good. I think it's really important to notice amid all the talk of AI and all the talk of macroeconomic volatility how strong earnings have been this year. We've had 12% earnings growth in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 is up about 16 or 17%. So most of that has been driven by earnings. And here we are stepping into the biggest week of the third quarter earnings.

I think so. If we look at the mega-cap tech stocks, we have five of those magnificent seven reporting this week. In the first quarter, they grew earnings by 30%. In the second quarter, again 30%. Consensus estimates this quarter are just 14%. I think that's a low bar. We're going to clear that bar.

We have a sense there's a wave coming but we don't know how quickly it will occur. AI could cause 6 or 7 percent US job displacement, which is quite a lot. But it matters if that happens over a year or a decade. Most announcements are about reduced hiring rather than large layoffs, though Amazon may be an exception. This suggests a gradual and smooth labor market transition.

There's a fine line. Too much labor market displacement might suggest more Fed easing than currently priced, which is negative for growth from an equity perspective. So far, the Fed has said it plans to ease a little and stay on course, including a likely cut this week.

First, as an equity investor, one should focus on what could go right. Second, institutional positioning is surprisingly constrained despite the market being at an all-time high with high PE multiples. Hedge fund leverage is low and mutual funds have been selling lately, indicating skepticism which could allow the market to keep climbing.