Asks if administration's affordability push impacts view of markets, consumer spending, corporate confidence.
Tim
Mike Schumacher
Affordability measures help marginally but not massive for broad macro markets; helps younger borrowers (30-35) and politically, but doesn't significantly drive Treasury yields.
Asks about additional stimulus (checks, tax refunds) informing market view.
Tim
Mike Schumacher
Stimulus from 'one big beautiful bill' coming online now via tax refunds/lower payments; election year means Congress unlikely to spend more after initial 3-4 month burst, creating a 'desert' unless massive downturn.
Asks about Fed dynamics (on hold?), relative to other central banks, dollar/rate dynamics, and stock market enthusiasm for lower rates/weaker dollar.
Karen
Mike Schumacher
Core view: Fed would like to cut a couple more times but not now; market pricing <5% chance now; needs clean data (recent jobs data was a 'total mess', CPI likely messy too); must wait 1-2 months for clear data before acting.
Asks if Fed on hold short-term leads to positive market view via earnings or multiples.
Karen
Mike Schumacher
Deferring equity view to colleague (bullish on earnings); overall environment 'sounds OK for risk'; low volatility across markets (VIX, FX, rates) indicates investors are 'pretty comfortable' and taking more risk, though not overconfident yet.