Reiterates 2025 outlook themes: AI, global fragmentation, and inflation are playing out. Current situation is a confluence of geopolitical and political agendas changing the fabric of economies and markets, requiring different portfolio construction.

2026 will be more about fiscal policy than monetary policy. Need to watch monetary policy flow-through; events threatening Fed independence/efficacy could steepen the yield curve (front end down, back end up) without benefiting the economy, impacting cross-asset correlations.

Job displacement is a remaining question, with evidence in the graduate job market. 47% of S&P companies discussing AI use cases pertain to efficiency gains, which could displace jobs. Hope is that using AI for revenue growth opens new job opportunities.

Inflation could start coming up again north of 3% in the first half of 2026, then fade in the back half.

US-China is the defining geopolitical relationship. China's economy is bottoming out, property issues persist but people want to move on. China's tech advancement in AI is broader (automation, manufacturing) and presents an opportunity, but not a big allocation. US is still preferred market.

Oil consensus is particularly tight this year, but one area with wide spread is oil, even before Venezuela/Iran events. Venezuela is less of an issue for current supply. Events in Middle East/Iran need watching closely, not just for direct impact on oil price/Iranian production, but for flow through Strait of Hormuz.