The geopolitical impact is larger than fundamental. The world just got riskier for oil importers (Europe, China, India). Analogous to freezing Russian central bank assets driving demand for gold, this makes real assets/commodities more dangerous to hold, potentially triggering hoarding.

Yes, oil is more bullish. The market is record short, but the perceived glut is in floating storage. If China hoards, prices spike. This is a re-rating of real asset prices, similar to China's past actions on rare earths.

Even with a regime change, increasing oil supply takes a decade+ due to dilapidated infrastructure (worse than Iraq post-2003). The only immediate supply is floating storage, which China may take.

Existential threat (e.g., Greenland, geopolitics) forces change; markets are beginning to price it. We are in a rotation from 'new economy' tech to 'old economy' commodities, industrials, and defense.