Asks how confidence is being tested given geopolitics and Fed risks.
Tom
Henry Allen
Despite challenges, S&P at record high; high-level backdrop still positive with AI, trade certainty, and big fiscal impulse.
Asks if tariff risk is back.
Tom
Henry Allen
Risk is on the downside; as affordability concerns rose, they rolled back some tariffs; political incentive to keep inflation down before midterms.
Asks how new 25% tariff on Iran partners fits with fragile US-China truce.
Anna
Henry Allen
It's a risk, but Trump often threatens tariffs as leverage, then dials back.
Asks if European equity overbought condition is worrying.
Anna
Henry Allen
Periodic pullbacks shouldn't alarm; DAX on long winning streak but moderate sell-offs are normal.
Asks if Supreme Court striking down tariffs is an opportunity for Trump to lower burden for affordability.
Guy
Henry Allen
Absolutely an option, as seen with relief on coffee, beef, furniture.
Asks what the affordability trade basket includes.
Guy
Henry Allen
Rates (mortgage) and prominent consumer basket items like food and energy.
Asks if he's betting on overheating US economy.
Tom
Henry Allen
Bigger concern is overheating than recession; biggest fiscal impulse since Biden stimulus, plus fast rate cuts outside recession.
Asks if that means a hike in 2027.
Tom
Henry Allen
Probability going up, but depends on Trump's influence on Fed; if he gets dovish chair, pressure for lower rates remains.