Projects strong 2.4% US GDP growth for 2026, strong relative to US trend and other economies (Europe/Japan flat to down). Attributes strength to American consumers and markets valuing future growth.

AI investment building during year, bigger contributor next year and beyond. Data center build-out is big deal. AI spending continues, boosted by tax benefits and business incentives. Confident in moving from ~2% growth to 2.4%.

Consumer spending up 5% in Q3, 4-4.5% in Q4. Solid backdrop with wage growth. All income tertiles growing (higher/middle faster, lower still positive). Labor market normalizing (4.5-4.6% unemployment) but still strong historically.

Unemployment peaking in mid-4% range, then flattening. Inflation working down toward Fed target, giving Fed latitude to cut rates in first half of 2025, providing stimulus in second half. Rate cuts benefit small/mid-sized businesses with floating rate debt. Small businesses optimistic about growth and hiring.

Team needs to get one more client and do more with each client across all business lines. Organic growth engine intact.

Predicts Fed funds down to ~3%, 10-year Treasury 4-4.5%. That's a good normal curve for banks. With $2T deposits ($1T low/no interest), nominal 2-3% rate environment good for earnings growth.

$13B annual tech spend: $9B infrastructure, $4B initiatives. Each project measured for payback (revenue increase/expense reduction) above cost of capital. Deploying AI copilot to 200,000 people.

Will apply more automated/augmented intelligence across all businesses. Experience with Erica (AI agent) shows need for perfect data and controls. 30 proofs of concept. Relentless but controlled build-out.

Near term: mostly process engineering to take out work (cost savings). Over time: more about enhancing revenue (e.g., relationship management tools). Now equal parts revenue and expense.

Historical tech adoption (computers, phones) led to twice as many jobs. Question is shift to different job types. Advice: learn and harness AI as agent. Effective use generates more revenue and potentially more jobs.

Currently limited risk: narrow group of companies spending, they have money. As lender, looks at project leverage, contract duration, tenant quality. Market may debate AI stock valuations, but earnings growth drives market. Chris Hayes (BofA strategist) is 'proud bull', market ahead very constructive. Team predicts mid-single digit S&P growth next year.

Upside from policy series: taxation, trade/tariff, immigration, deregulation. Biggest potential is deregulation. If works, US kicks to another growth level, benefiting world.

Small businesses now understanding tariff impacts (10-20%), adjusting supply chains. Biggest worry is getting employees, related to immigration policy precision. Feeling better as policies settle in.