The consequences of the shutdown distorted data, but are not huge. Shelter data has been distorted upward for most of the year due to lags. Market rents have been at 1% for two years, indicating no price pressure.

I don't see a recession in the near term because we are adjusting our policy rate down. A variety of shocks, including changes to population growth, have pushed the neutral rate down, and policy needs to adjust downward. If we don't, we run risks of rising recessions.

It's important to avoid groupthink. If you fall into groupthink you stop questioning where you could be wrong. We've seen complacent consensus in error over and over, for example on tariffs.

If you hit the gas on demand while hitting the brakes on supply, you get inflation. If you push out supply and demand at the same time, it doesn't really have an effect on prices. The economy is in a different place now than in 2021.

The consensus that tariffs are a significant driver of inflation is wrong and complacent. When you look at imported goods versus overall core goods, or U.S. core goods against other countries, you don't see anything indicating tariffs are the driver.

I plan on pushing for appropriate policy. The need for 50bps cuts was greater when policy was very high. As we continue reducing, you can start micro-managing with 25bps cuts. I haven't decided for the next meeting.