• Asks if anything will stop the narrative of increasing capital expenditure (capex) in the semiconductor/AI space, which has been lifting the trade.
    Kelly
  • Mark Mahaney
    States nothing will stop the AI capex narrative for at least the next year or two. Companies are spending $300-400B on capex driven by AI, and this is not the peak investment year. Investment will continue to rise due to good ROI.
  • Asks for his investment playbook, noting some Mag 7 names like Amazon didn't perform as well in 2025, and questions where gains might be distributed within the AI trade.
    Kelly
  • Mark Mahaney
    Names Amazon as his top pick due to reversion to mean, reasonable valuation, and a strong setup. Expects accelerating AWS growth driven by economy-wide investment in AI-enabled cloud services and accelerating retail growth with benefits from faster delivery and new features.
  • Poses a larger macro question: Traditionally, tech rallies on a looser Fed (lower rates). What if that dynamic changes due to sticky inflation/strong GDP, with some even talking about rate hikes?
    Kelly
  • Mark Mahaney
    Agrees that rising interest rates (a 'grow-flation' scenario) would be a threat to tech stocks, referencing 2022 when rate hikes cracked the tech market.
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