• Welcome back, take a look at the markets major indices mixed. Investors awaiting the possible end of the government shutdown beginning to assess the economic impact joining us with this outlook as well as fargo investment institute senior global markets strategists Scott Wren with some advice on what to do with the AI trade because there are now questions about whether it's overheated and whether valuations are stretched and that was last week. Yesterday we had a big comeback now what do you do?
    Host1 (Sarah)
  • Scott Wren
    Well, I say, Sarah, I think a lot of these AI stocks are pretty fully valued, especially the big ones. A couple of months ago, we backed off of communication services just two weeks ago, we backed off of the info tech sector. So we brought both of those from overwates down to even weights. Those stocks that basically determine where those sectors go look pretty fully valued to us. We've been taking some other angles on the AI trade. We've liked industrials, utilities, and financials. You will see some trickle down on capex from AI. It's going to help other parts of the economy. Somebody has to build data centers and upgrade the electrical grid and then of course utilities. Demand surges, rates are higher, they're going to make money there. So these are ways we're playing AI, remaining with that theme but not leaning so hard on tech or communication services.
  • Yeah, the note today is making the rounds, Scott. The pullback may prove short-lived, but the sector remains vulnerable to negative surprises including modest misses in corporate earnings reports. That would get your attention.
    Host2 (Carl)
  • Scott Wren
    Yes, Carl, what surprised me earlier in the year and continues is that if even a whiff of big companies missing earnings or cutting AI capex spending came out, the market would have reacted very negatively. But these companies keep confirming and increasing AI capex spend. Earnings results are twice what consensus expected through Q3. Things have been pretty good but we felt we needed to carry full weight, lean that way but look at different angles.
  • What about the broader market? Can it work without key sectors like info tech and communication services leading? Can we get broadening and expansion if they're not leading?
    Host1 (Sarah)
  • Scott Wren
    We have a 7,500 number out there for the S&P for end of next year. We won't get there if tech and communication services don't participate; I think they will. We expect a broadening in earnings and price contribution with less from the MAG7 stocks and more from the other 493 stocks. These big growth companies have strong products, cash flow, revenues. They're definitely going to participate and have some more upside. But we also see opportunities in other sectors.
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