• Questions Miran on his term expiration and the timeline for his replacement by Kevin Warsh.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Confirms he will stay until Warsh is confirmed. Has no timeline but is confident the process will work.
  • Asks why he dissented for only 25bps instead of 50bps at the last meeting.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Explains dissent was for 25bps because the Fed has already cut 75bps, moving closer to neutral, allowing for a slower pace. Also cites slightly better labor market data, though concerns remain.
  • Counters that unemployment is stable at 4.4% and core PCE inflation is rising, making rate cuts optically difficult.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Disagrees. Argues unemployment rate alone is insufficient; there is evidence of slack (longer job searches, weakness among youth/college grads, part-time work). On inflation, contends overage is due to measurement quirks: portfolio management fees (driven by stock prices) and backward-looking shelter data.
  • Asks about discussion at the Fed regarding weakness in middle-market/small businesses, as noted by the Amex CEO.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Acknowledges conversations about K-shaped patterns but focuses on aggregate targets. Says sectoral weakness can be a leading indicator for the overall economy.
  • Asks about Kevin Warsh's nomination, citing Wall Street skepticism that his dovishness is suspect and politically motivated.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Praises Warsh as a fantastic pick with credibility, gravitas, and respect. Declines to speculate on his specific policy views.
  • Asks if Warsh can build consensus on the FOMC given diverse views.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Believes he can, due to his prior experience and respect within the institution.
  • Asks if President Trump ever directed his policy actions and how Warsh would fight the perception of being the 'president's man'.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    States Trump never asked him to take any specific policy action. Argues the right policy, justified by data, will validate the Fed's independence.
  • Asks about fiscal policy coordination once he (potentially) returns to the White House.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Declines to comment on fiscal policy as a Fed Governor and says he has no idea about his future role.
  • Asks about Warsh's hawkish balance sheet views and whether stepping back from balance sheet expansion could raise long-end rates and mortgage rates.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Supports shrinking the balance sheet but says regulatory reform is needed first. Argues the effect on long rates depends on the method (roll-off vs. sales). States that if not at the zero lower bound, short rates can be adjusted to offset balance sheet tightening.
  • Asks if having Chair Powell remain on the board under Chair Warsh would be uncomfortable.
    Host
  • Stephen Miran
    Praises Powell's work during the pandemic but says he doesn't know what Powell will decide to do.
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