The market is repricing risk based on collision between government policy and asset reality. The all-weather tech trade is unwinding, Nasdaq broke 100-day MA, capital rotating from paper to managed economy. Project Vault announced to coordinate pricing and support supply stability for critical minerals.
Jeremy Safron
Project Vault offers foundation for private financing and secure access to critical mineral supplies for emergencies, regulating imports to preserve competition and elevate domestic miners and producers.
JD Vance
Market response immediate: gold tested $5,092 then rejected, trading around $4,900; silver outperforming on critical mineral designation. Official central bank buying data shows slowdown but price suggests aggressive demand.
Jeremy Safron
Joe Cavatoni
Central bank buying remains very strong at 680 tons for 2025. When prices get higher, central banks may slow pace due to policy allocation limits. Recent correction shows support likely from sovereign entities.
Joe Cavatoni
Central bank reporting has lag due to IMF scheduling and administrative tasks - could be weeks to months. Some sovereign entities own gold without reporting requirements.
Gold saw sharp air pockets - $5,092 then dropped $200. To what extent driven by market structure, leverage, margin adjustments vs underlying physical demand?
Jeremy Safron
Joe Cavatoni
30% January run was fast for real asset. Brings capital markets participants, more volatility, speculation. Structural shift in gold demand stays intact, creating floors around $5,000.
Joe Cavatoni
Central banks may step in during corrections. Price correction makes entry more palatable. ETF flows strong in Asia, good in US, less in Europe due to strong equity trade.
With government validating strategic asset thesis for industrial metals, are investors viewing silver as national security asset rather than high beta trade?
Jeremy Safron
Joe Cavatoni
Silver on critical minerals list gives it strategic/military importance. Industrial use still dominant. Smaller market means more extreme price moves and volatility.
Joe Cavatoni
Silver doesn't qualify as reserve asset formally. Gold's market size and liquidity much bigger - central banks won't materially impact price when they need to sell.
Joe Cavatoni
Central banks educated on gold market, make sensitive decisions with bullion banks on timing. Gold viable choice versus dollar-only reserves, fitting roughly 25% of total reserves.
Joe Cavatoni
Interesting developments in gold storage hubs - India bringing gold home, Hong Kong wanting to be like Singapore. London offers most flexibility for capital market use.
Rotation out of tech, Nasdaq breaking down. Is gold getting Western flows from allocators selling software to buy hard assets?
Jeremy Safron
Joe Cavatoni
Conversation is about appreciating risk and finding right asset for hedge. Gold fills need in real asset buckets for diversification.
Joe Cavatoni
North American ETF market shows significant interest though choppy. Lower cost products more sticky for buy-and-hold versus liquid products for speculation.
Are we entering phase where gold trends higher with more violent margin-driven pullbacks?
Jeremy Safron
Joe Cavatoni
Yes, but qualified. Need good economic data, Fed behavior key. Gold will move more methodically up over course of year, not 30% like January.
Joe Cavatoni
Warsh-led Fed bodes well for gold - his position likely managing rates, creating good environment for gold.
Joe Cavatoni
Watch debt levels, US and major economy outlook. If risk environment needs careful protection with appetite for hedging, great condition for gold.