Asks about market digestion of policy flux, tariffs, and Middle East hostilities.
speaker1
speaker2
Four themes driving market volatility: trade, artificial intelligence, Middle East situation, and central bank policy.
speaker2
Shift from semiconductors to software within tech sector as software was underowned in portfolios.
speaker2
Midterm election years historically see intra-year market volatility with average declines of 18% at some point.
Notes that in midterm years when Fed isn't raising rates and economy is growing, downside outcomes tend to be avoided.
speaker1
Asks about interplay of economy and Fed given market expectations of rate cuts and potential AI unemployment shock.
speaker1
speaker2
Fed will probably cut rates this year - call for two rate cuts in second half.
speaker2
Fed Chair is a productivity bull who believes accelerating productivity will help keep inflation at bay.
speaker2
Geopolitical issues in Middle East are causing oil prices to rise.
Asks about AI productivity impact and market assumption that AI will reduce need for workers.
speaker1
speaker2
Market has shifted from identifying AI winners to identifying AI losers.
speaker2
AI will impact economy areas with lots of data like healthcare and financial services.