Confirms a concentration and valuation bubble in AI stocks, with the top 8 stocks dominating indices. Argues not every AI company can win, yet all are priced as winners, similar to the dot-com bubble.

Acknowledges Furman's numbers but calls them misleading due to inventory adjustments. States AI investment is adding 1% to GDP, a historically high level comparable to internet and PC adoption booms, but stronger and shorter.

Says everyone is involved in the bubble whether they want to be or not. 45 AI-related stocks account for 71% of S&P gains; broad index investors have ~45% exposure to AI. The economy and investments are tied to it.

Identifies retail investors as the primary driver, with $100B invested in September (all-time high). This market is more retail-driven than any in decades. Retail is flooding into indices, AI, and precious metals.

Not yet concerning. Attributes high unemployment reading to rounding. The bigger issue is 80-year low population growth due to reduced immigration. The breakeven job growth rate is now 0-25k/month, so recent ~29k jobs are sufficient.

Over the short term, the rally will continue due to retail momentum. However, valuations are high (even ex-AI), requiring companies to beat the highest earnings estimates. The AI productivity thesis is long-term (2035), not near-term.

Dismisses dollar debasement narrative. Says rally is driven by a small cohort of retail investors seeking safe havens, moving money between crypto and metals. Precious metals markets are tiny, so small flows have large impact.

Advocates for realistic return expectations: 4% cash, 5% bonds, 6% stocks ('456 market'). Suggests bonds offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. Chasing AI is rolling dice; not all will win.

Small caps have more realistic valuations but lack AI exposure. Rotating there is a bet on a stable economy and reasonable rates. They are more economically sensitive.

In the near term, precious metals will continue higher. We'll take out $50 in silver and keep moving towards $75-$100. However, metals are very speculative; parabolic moves often reverse sharply when everyone takes profits.

Still thinks Bitcoin follows Nasdaq. Notes shift in crypto towards ETH due to stablecoins, DeFi, and real-world asset tokenization narratives, which Bitcoin lacks. Bitcoin remains a store of value.

Momentum is in precious metals and AI stocks. They will probably continue to be the best performers over the next 2-4 months. It's a momentum play but high-risk.