• Introduces Richard Bernstein and asks where he's value hunting, what he's avoiding, his view on the market's strength, and Amazon's quarter.
    Kelly
  • Richard Bernstein
    Market broadening since October is healthy. People underestimate strong economy with 8% nominal GDP - highest since 2006. Corporate profits are stronger and broader than expected.
  • Asks if he likes any Mag7 stocks, noting Nvidia is up 7%.
    Kelly
  • Richard Bernstein
    Declines specific stock picks as a macro firm. Mag7 are fine but not unique - many companies grow as fast or faster and are cheaper. Questions paying 40x earnings for 20% growth when you can get same growth for 20x.
  • Asks where to find 20%+ growth profiles, citing Eli Lilly's 40/40 metrics and suggesting Microsoft fits his description.
    Kelly
  • Richard Bernstein
    Look outside US - earnings growth accelerating in many parts of world. US earnings leveling off, non-US profit cycles coming up. Most US investors have <10% in non-US vs 35-40% of global market. Just having any non-US exposure solves the problem.
  • Worries about dollar impact - asks if moves are powerful enough to overcome dollar appreciation.
    Kelly
  • Richard Bernstein
    Dollar appreciation would be prevailing force but not enough to make much difference. If Fed cuts rates into strong nominal GDP, odds are dollar gets weaker, not stronger. Most argue Fed still on rate cutting course.
  • Asks about macro narratives: dollar debasement/gold/silver vs hawkish stance pulling back momentum trades.
    Kelly
  • Richard Bernstein
    Dollar debasement hyperbolic but dollar likely weakens. Can play via non-US stocks - when currency falls, good to have assets in appreciating currencies. Crypto/Mag7 driven by speculation needing liquidity. If Fed nominee is hawkish, liquidity dries up - Fed taking punchbowl away. Argument to look at fundamentals, not speculation.
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