• We're on the market as we await the house vote today on a bill that could end the shutdown. Let's bring in Raymond James CEO Paul Shoukry. It's great to have you Paul. Welcome. Yeah, great to be here and then why us see. Yeah, so how are you feeling about the overall market? these days. We're waiting for the end of the shutdown, waiting to see. about the AI trade after last week was a little bit bumpy. Where do you think things stand?
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  • Paul Shoukry
    Yeah, I mean, there's always uncertainty. And so the markets at Dahl finish at a record high yesterday. And so... We're optimistic about the economy long term. As we look into next year, we think lower rates and tax cuts will be a tailwind. So we're looking at 2% GDP growth and... We're very optimistic about them. economy and the market is going forward.
  • I mean, this is a sort of year sector. We were just talking about some of these banks that EOS going to Washington to... to die in with the president. What do you think the message from Wall Street should be?
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  • Paul Shoukry
    Yeah, it's not too late to invite me. I could still fly to DC after this, but... I'm not sure what the man is watching. not sure what the message is going to be frankly. But... I know we're all waiting for more on deregulation. more balanced regulations. I'm happy to meet you. There's a lot of guidance coming out and a lot of speculation around it, but in terms of real rule changes we haven't seen anything just yet, but it's still early, you know, in the grand game of things.
  • Paul Shoukry
    Some of the regulations post. the recession that impacted banks for the asset thresholds, for example. They haven't even been indexed to inflation, so some of those rules that can be indexed to inflation were at $80 billion at Raymond James of assets. The whole new set of rules that happened at $100 billion. that $100 billion threshold was established. decade over a decade ago and so having some adjustments for that just to be indexed for inflation would be a great relief for us for example.
  • So I mean overall, the client, the environment, the operating environment, what's been happening to assets, the stock has done very well over the last few years.
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  • Paul Shoukry
    Yeah, well we released earnings for our fiscal year. Two weeks ago we finished with record-cline assets of $1.7 trillion. Revenue is up 10% from last year's record to just over $14 billion for the fiscal year. consumer sentiment is very strong. exposure to the equity markets is near all-time high and we don't have the volatility that the brokers have. We're a financial planning organization so it's been relatively stable.
  • Paul Shoukry
    the engagement in the equity markets is strong and clients sentiment and client satisfaction with their financial advisors is near all time high.
  • Are you on the lookout for spreads to start acting a little bit weird?
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  • Paul Shoukry
    Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see more spread volatility. I mean, we're almost near a multi-decade tight spread environment now. And that's pretty unusual. We were just meeting with our... Corporate Bond trading team actually downtown last night. That joined the Raymond James family three or four years ago and it's a tough environment. I'm giving help. tight spreads of Ben and how low volatility has been. So going into the next year, it would be normal. I would say more normal to have a bit wider spreads and more spread volatility than we've had over the past year. I mean, I'm just trying to think, what kinds of catalyst would you?
  • Imagine might widen that.
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  • Paul Shoukry
    just natural volatility around, you know, we had some rumors come out, there's some issues come out in the loan markets fraud related a few weeks ago. We weren't Raymond James was an involved in those particular loans, but that created some near-term spread volatility. So... Now the credit environment has been your record. good credit levels over the last 15 years and it's not going to be a surprise to me of the next five to 10 years if we see more credit issues which banks reserved for I mean we expect that we price it out yeah we keep asking where's the where's the cycle yeah yeah We don't try to time it. We make decisions over the next five to ten years. And so we're not trying to time the cycle, but cycles will come. And we all know that. And we just don't know when will come.
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