• Asks how to handle market days with escalating Middle East tensions causing port evacuations and ship attacks that flummox markets.
    Vonnie Quinn
  • Max Kettner
    Two approaches: 1) Intraday trading the extreme volatility (e.g., oil swinging wildly), but not helpful for year-end targets as path depends on next days/weeks. 2) Historical perspective: biggest escalations in last 35-40 years show a lot of hedging immediately after events.
  • If conflict lasts more than a couple weeks (a month), will impact GDP. Asks what central banks (10 meeting next week) should do.
    Vonnie Quinn
  • Max Kettner
    Too early for central banks to entirely change course (e.g., ECB hiking) because event might be transitory. Worst decision would be to immediately hike rates without caring if it's transitory.
  • Worst scenario: US labor market falls off while getting inflation boost from oil. How does Fed reach consensus given existing divisions?
    Vonnie Quinn
  • Max Kettner
    Less concerned about February payroll data. Under the hood, payroll diffusion index net number of sectors hiring still went up in Feb. High-frequency labor data shows little warning signs.
  • Very briefly, what are you most concerned will break?
    Vonnie Quinn
  • Max Kettner
    Most concerned about earnings outlook towards Q3/Q4 2024 because earnings expectations are super high ($70 to $84 expected).
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