Not sure it changes the outcome, but it might change perception around where we're headed in terms of Fed policy. Whoever is appointed will advocate for more rate cuts as the president has indicated. That could make investors nervous because it could imply a willingness to tolerate more inflation and would probably steepen the yield curve.

I'm surprised at dovish comments from Fed officials. At this stage, inflation is still hovering around 3%, unemployment is roughly 4.5% and stable. The case for rate cuts isn't particularly strong. It's in anticipation of weakening labor market, but that might be more structural than cyclical and won't be addressed by rate cuts.

If they push the terminal rate even lower in projections or forecast more rate cuts, we just steepen the yield curve and get inflation expectations lifting long term yields. It's precarious because you advocate for rate cuts but without economic weakness or declining inflation, all you get is a steeper yield curve.

No. We're seeing continuation of stable 'no hire, no fire' environment with relatively stable unemployment rate. We're shrinking the size of the labor force due to immigration policies, so you don't need much job growth to maintain unemployment rate.

That would be a bold prediction. We might get solid growth rate, but that might actually keep inflation elevated instead of coming down. There's a two-tier economy: higher income people doing fine with assets up and incomes keeping pace, but lower income people not keeping up with cost of living increases.