The most important chart in macro shows the 10-year US Treasury yield minus 10-year JGB yield against USD/JPY. Despite JGB yields rising relative to Treasuries, the yen is weakening, creating a significant divergence from their 5-year correlation.

Japan faces a binary choice: hike rates to defend the yen (risks a bond market problem that spreads globally via Japan's sale of foreign assets) or cap yields/resume YCC (supports JGBs but weakens the yen meaningfully, injecting global liquidity).

The yen weakness despite rising JGB yields is a big warning sign of disruption, bad for general liquidity, and good for the Swiss Franc as a safety trade versus the yen.

100% of investors should evaluate returns in gold terms, not dollar terms. Gold is nobody's liability—a 0% yielding bond of finite issuance—and is the true North Star, especially as the global sovereign debt bubble bursts.

Highest conviction sector/region over medium/long-term: US electrical infrastructure equities (companies in PAVE and GRID ETFs).

Explicit yield curve control will be a last-resort emergency option. More likely, we continue with de facto control: shifting issuance to the front end, Treasury buybacks, changing SLR rules, Fed reserve management purchases (RMPs).

If gold rises enough, it can be revalued to buy down debt-to-GDP. A weaker dollar in an orderly manner is ultimately good for longer-term bonds. The more gold-backed the Treasury market is, the lower the coupon investors will accept.

Bitcoin consensus is not yet discounting Japanese bond market risks and potential contagion, which could cause a 'whoosh down' for global assets, led by Bitcoin, in the first half.

US gold exports don't undermine the need to revalue gold; they may represent the US de facto settling part of its trade deficit in gold, letting the deficit bid gold to much higher sustainable prices ($10k-$20k).

China directing banks to cut Treasury exposure is not necessarily a sign of domestic economic stress (desperate countries sell gold, China is buying). It could be part of a deal with the US to weaken the dollar vs. the yuan or preparation for that inevitability.

David Hunter's view of a melt-up then global bust with TLT as the only safe haven is flawed. In a global bust, US receipts would fall below interest and entitlement payments almost immediately, forcing a print-or-default choice.