Probability of regime change is ~30%, base case is a protracted experience. Risk follows Iranian asymmetric doctrine - proxies targeting energy infrastructure beyond Hormuz Strait.
Clarifying if Iran's goal is to drive oil prices up to pressure Trump.
Host
Jeff Currie
Bigger point is supply chain risks are at all-time high, leading China/India to hoard oil and commodities, increasing demand.
Asking what's needed for Strait of Hormuz to normalize and if normalization is expected.
Host
Jeff Currie
Current kinetic disruption (like a hurricane) may last 7-10 days, but overall situation remains uncertain with asymmetric risks anywhere.
Asking to quantify potential supply loss.
Host
Jeff Currie
Potential loss of 8-10 million barrels per day for 7-10 days = 100+ million barrels, similar to floating glut in South China Sea.
Noting the supply loss would wash with existing floating glut.
Unknown Speaker
Jeff Currie
Key question is what happens after initial disruption - would be careful fading current spike as situation becomes more serious.