UBS warns contagion risk from private to public credit. What do you mean by risk being underappreciated?
Francine Lacqua
Matthew Mish
Private credit has permeated public credit; the two are interconnected. Key risk for 2026 is steady increase in defaults and credit losses. Market looks late cycle but not over. Modest credit overvaluation expected.
How attractive is European investment-grade credit compared to the US?
Francine Lacqua
Matthew Mish
Europe has lower exposure to AI and tech, favorable fiscal impulse, and offers carry that investors can trust, expected to outperform US IG in various scenarios.