Asks if Boockvar is still feeling bleak about 2026, referencing his past at Bleakley.
Joe
Peter Boockvar
States his role is to call things as they are, not as he wants them to be. He is hopeful the market is up for clients but takes things as he sees them.
Seeks clarification: Is Boockvar saying the market will not be up this year?
Joe
Peter Boockvar
Doesn't know what the market will do. Highlights that 2025 saw broadening into international and small/mid-cap stocks. Believes the AI tech trade is losing steam and becoming more differentiated, which will allow other areas to do well.
Asks for a top-down view: Is the environment positive for equities considering interest rates, earnings, and valuations?
Joe
Peter Boockvar
The US economy and stock market are overly reliant on the AI data center buildout. The key question is whether growth can pass to other parts of the economy.
Peter Boockvar
While central banks are cutting short-term rates, long-end rates are not accommodating. This is a global phenomenon.
Asks specifically about earnings growth and multiple contraction/expansion to assess market valuation.
Joe
Peter Boockvar
Cites consensus for 10%+ earnings growth. States the multiple will depend on the 10-year yield: if it goes to 4.5-5%, the multiple will contract, not expand.
Acknowledges potential fiscal stimulus but highlights the $40 trillion debt as a major issue if the bond market doesn't cooperate.
Joe
Peter Boockvar
Reiterates that debts and deficits now matter for investor appetite for long-duration bonds in major economies like Japan, Germany, France, and the UK.