• Let's talk more about inflation and the Fed. We just got that news about a Boston planning to retire at the end of his term in February. Joining us this morning here at Post 9 is David Zervos. Chief Market strategist, the Jeffries and of course, the CNBC contributor. Good to see you, David. Welcome. Good to be here. I'm going to guess you're not too worried about the hand ringing about consumer. much.
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  • David Zervos
    You know That's it. That's probably what you would think, but I am getting a little worried, believe it or not. And I think I'm tracking the labor market a little bit more closely and I'm just not liking what I see. And I think we've got a couple of problems, Carl I. Monetary policy is too restrictive and has been too restrictive for a while and I think that's a battle out. I'll still continue to fight. I'm... But more importantly, it's the AI story that you cover every day and the confidence that's kind of shaking. I was particularly struck by it. the interview you guys did or was on the network with Barry Sterling like the friend of mine. And, you know, 1..2.. could have had, keep on slow scrolling Lock, I have been? was screaming in ??? mont point blank kind of saying, you know. I've got this program. They're $30 a month that makes 15 or 20 people redundant at my firm. That's what we're hearing and we're seeing it, we're hearing it, we're feeling it. I think workers are starting to get a little bit of a confidence issue. and I'm... I'm seeing the data, the revisions we've had, the big revisions, the million and a half. which we revised away over 20, 4, and 25. And... the weakness. that we have today Challenger and ADP.
  • I don't like it. So you think, you think, music in? is an accurate reflection. right now.
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  • David Zervos
    I'm not sure, Michigan's got weird stomachs. Yeah, I throw that away. I like Challenger. I think ADP does a decent job. I think the revisions are probably the story of the year in the labor market. dismissed. the 900,000 in 2024 and then the 400 and change thousand for the early part this year. That's a lot of jobs. We had much more productivity growth. that we thought. We had much less job fueled. growth than we thought. And I think that's... That's a sort of, that's pointing me. 2. a couple of culprits. The good side technological advance. That's always great. The bad side. I'll see you soon. not stimulative for demand at a time when the job markets weaken.
  • But if the big problem is really the very strong like this is...
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  • David Zervos
    Because I wave of hiring. But it will stimulate sectors that are interest rate sensitive berries in particular, the real estate sector, and he would love to see reasons why that picks up and he can hire. more people potentially. Well, that's the question. He could hire more people potentially in the mortgage finance world. Maybe in the construction world in places where the AI isn't going to happen. I don't think we're going to have... AI robots banging nails into roofs on houses in Austin, Texas and Miami, Florida. So... Let's get the interest rate sensitive sectors moving. Let's get... That job creation machine moving. And that could be an offset to some of this other stuff. I think. We're fighting an old battle, Sarah. We're fighting this inflation battle from the past that really... is really a price level battle one. It's not an inflation battle as you said in your opening segment. And... We're kind of missing the force for the trees on the labor market. I'm really optimistic on the returns for capital earnings, S&P. And it's Holly Stokes. And stocks. And I love that. I'm kind of worried about the... the swath or the path of creative destruction. that all of this productivity is going to leave in the labor market and what that means for more Tuesdays like we had last week in New York and how voters go wait a minute. I don't feel part of this. And as a secretary of the Treasury has said, I think the number is something like 88% of all stock. value. is owned by 10 or 12 percent. of the population kind of consistent with your B of A chart. earlier. That's gotta change. That people have to feel part of this. productivity. story. Otherwise we're gonna have a bunch of love nights. burning the machine so
  • Journal did a piece about the political left beginning to push back on the AI buildout. Yeah. Do you think that picks up steam? I think it is an argument. They come to town.
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  • David Zervos
    This is going to take your water, it's going to jack up your utility bill and have my put you out of work. Spamberger in Virginia, she was campaigning on it in Virginia, which has been a big data centerplate. I think it's real and I think the administration. God. a notice on Tuesday. that it's real and we're gonna see some... Hopefully some pivoting. Hopefully the Fed. Remade as you've discussed here with a new governor and a new chair. up. We'll get that notice and I do think. folks like um and has it. a real supply cider in the way he thinks. will be sympathetic to the idea that this is supply side driven growth which really. is disinflationary. And it's... very important to think about these labor market consequences, which could be.
  • It's so obvious to you and yet there is real debate inside the fed right now and Disenters and even fetch your power. I know he's trying to reflect sort of the discussion at the fed that December is not even a certainty.
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  • David Zervos
    You know, it doesn't surprise me. The Fed underbelly, the staff. is made up of canzians and demand ciders they're not really supply side thinkers. the good news. We have some changes coming. I think those are more supply side driven, but it's gonna be hard to move that. That fed by the way, Greenspan, I think was... really at the forefront of this in the 90s when we had you know, the productivity miracle, the new paradigm, a lot of supply side thinking, there it wasn't as just job destructive though, at that time. even though people talked about it, it didn't end up being that job, this sort of. This one, this productivity story feels...
  • Little... you But are you not at all worried that the bulk of the inflation still is in the services part of the economy? And if they do go easier, there is this fear that they can reignite. I mean, if they stimulate demand, then they reignite the services inflation, which is really what the trouble they got into in the last few years.
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  • David Zervos
    I think a lot of that core. Number is in housing services, a lot of that has. Not been. coming as quickly as we thought, but is in the pipeline and is really going to hit in 2026. We're seeing it in a lot of the micro data. I don't worry about it. I mean, I'll always worry about it in the back of my mind, but I think it wouldn't stop me and I always think. You're sorry, if... for some reason. We over-stimulate a little bit and we start to see it. We don't want to fix that problem. It's pretty easy. We stop it or we race and race. and slow it down and that's a...
  • That's a problem that I think we don't think the market can handle the back and forth.
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  • David Zervos
    I do when I think them look. The market never got its inflation anchored expectations dislodged. when we were at 9%. I mean we had an inverted curve. five your five your forwards. in the break evens, all that stuff. just stayed anchored. We all said this is coming back down and by March it did were at 2.5 to 3. Heck, I'm a long way coming down from mine. Sometimes we forget how far it's come down because we get stuck on price level. I think. It's really hard for me to see a worry at the fed. about dislodging. anchored inflation expectations when a 9% inflation rate didn't dislodge it in the first place. So it's 3 and it's a slotted because we went from 2 and 3 quarters to 3 seems kind of silly to me.
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