Do China's numbers today make the case for less stimulus?
April
Fred Neumann
Numbers might look soggy with weakness in Q4. Question is whether it warrants more stimulus. Given persistent headwinds, hope remains for more stimulus. Market will hope for more stimulus.
Can tech boom offset economic malaise?
April
Fred Neumann
Tech is a great story but not enough to drive the overall economy. It's a small part, not enough to drive consumption or offset infrastructure drag. Good for equity market but doesn't cure the economy.
When does tech optimism become a bubble risk, e.g., South Korea up 90%?
Sherry
Fred Neumann
Very concentrated in few sectors raises concern. Need broadening out in 2026—evidence AI lifting activity and earnings more broadly. Outside US, still way to go for high-end compute demand, so maybe more juice left.
What's your view on Japanese economy and BOJ?
Sherry
Fred Neumann
Economy ticking along well, above-trend growth in 2026 partly on fiscal stimulus. Challenge for BOJ: how much to tighten as yen weakens and raises inflation risk. BOJ on tightening path this year—question is number and timing of hikes.
What should we expect from Fed in second half?
April
Fred Neumann
Not clear Fed has case for cutting rates at all this year—may stay on hold. Dare I say, maybe we even price in hikes because US is in fairly good state economically.