Economic activity expanding at moderate pace; consumer spending solid, business investment expanding, housing weak; government shutdown effects temporary; GDP projections upgraded to 1.7% this year, 2.3% next year.

Committee lowered federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.5-3.75%; near-term risks: inflation tilted upside, employment downside; no risk-free path; tariffs seen as short-lived, one-time price shift.

With today's cut, total reduction of 75bps over last three meetings; further normalization should stabilize labor market while allowing inflation to resume downward trend toward 2% after tariff effects pass.

Policy now within range of plausible neutral estimates; well positioned to determine additional adjustments based on data, outlook, and risk balance.

Median participant projects appropriate fed funds rate at 3.4% end 2026, 3.1% end 2027 (unchanged from Sept); forecasts not preset course, decisions meeting-by-meeting.

Initiating Treasury bill purchases ($40B first month) to maintain ample reserves; standing repo limit eliminated to support policy implementation and smooth market functioning.

We held rates at 5.4% for over a year when inflation was high and labor market solid; over summer 2024 inflation came down and labor market showed real weakness; framework says when risks become more equal, move to balanced setting.

We cut, paused, resumed cuts in Sept; total 175bps cut; now well positioned to wait and see how economy evolves.

Unusual persistent tension between dual mandate goals; all FOMC agrees inflation too high and labor market softened with further risk; differences in weighting risks and forecasts.

Decision today had 9 out of 12 support; not normal situation where everyone agrees on direction.

Effects of 75bps cuts will only begin to be felt; well positioned to wait for data; need careful assessment of household survey data due to collection gaps in Oct/half Nov.

Tariff inflation: announcements take effect over months; if no new major tariff announcements, goods inflation should peak in Q1 2025 (couple tenths or less), then decline in back half of 2025.

Committed to delivering 2% inflation; without tariffs, inflation is in low 2s; tariffs seen as likely one-time price increase; job is to ensure it doesn't become ongoing problem.

Labor market under pressure; job creation may be negative; unemployment rate hasn't moved much but significant downside risks; people care about jobs and affordability.

When inflation was high and labor market strong, could focus entirely on inflation; now risks to both sides; no risk-free path; doing best to support activity while ensuring inflation lands around 2% when tariff effects pass.