• Joining me now is Vinyu Krishah, Barclays Head of US Strategy, Equity Strategy, specifically. Thank you so much for being here with us. I'd love to talk about some of your changes. Let's talk about downgrading value to negative and your worries there.
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  • Venu Krishna
    I think we have been consistently positive on growth. So, and growth as you know is really dominated by technology, where not just over profitability but the scale of the beats of earnings continues. Value, on the other hand, has exposure to segments which continue to face broadly speaking cost pressures which include parts of especially staples for example. So I think the sector composition and the fact that eventually consumer sentiment is going down, will hurt the kind of sectors which are more in the value space.
  • What about momentum? Momentum to neutral. So you think there's value there, but maybe just sort of treading water for a bit.
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  • Venu Krishna
    Yeah, momentum has worked at varying points in time, but at this point we are kind of neutral on it. What we really like effectively is growth. Even on quality we have been neutral. On the size factor, we are neutral on large or small, having been positive on large for a long time, but more recently changed stance because large is focused on big tech. Small has some short term support from rate cuts and recent earnings strength.
  • Some of your changes obviously downgrading value to negative and upgrading momentum and quality but just to neutral and not beyond that. Can you extrapolate a bit about what you're worried about for the broader economy? Slowdown or possible recession?
    host
  • Venu Krishna
    No, recession is very low probability, especially with robust consumption despite some labor market weakening. The single biggest issue is the scale of AI spending and the key questions about the returns on that spend and potential future deceleration. There's a concern if incremental CapEx from hyperscalers increasingly depends on credit markets. Potential downside scenarios include macroeconomic slowdown or inflation going wrong, combined with AI CapEx pullback, which would have fairly negative consequences. But this is not the base case. Overall, earnings remain strong with almost 50% growth and 6.5% on sales, showing good operating leverage.
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