It's a busy day with the FOMC meeting. Yesterday covered natural gas volatility - broke from 450 to 550 then crashed back to support.

Natural gas technically traded between 4-450 Aug-Oct, broke out Nov 5th. Near-record production at 109 bcf/day in Dec.

Market reprices based on rate of change in supply/demand. Polar vortex forecast shifted north, creating excess supply, causing price crash.

Long-term natural gas demand will grow. Natural gas role in AI expanding as it creates electricity for grid - tech/data centers building dedicated on-site natural gas plants supplying half of AI data center electricity.

Natural gas plays important role in AI expansion, ties into precious/industrial metals thesis - copper market will continue to rise with floor lifted going forward.

Silver reached new all-time high overnight at 6214 on March contract, extending gains from supply tightness overseas and bets on Fed monetary easing.

Market dealing with aftershocks of historic short squeeze - 1-month leasing rates elevated around 6%. Record metal flowed into London hub, putting other centers under pressure - Shanghai inventories near lowest in decade.

Silver's $2.40 move not alarming on percentage basis - need to adjust position size for volatility. Market repricing itself higher - similar situation with gold.

Gold going from 4000 to 5000 not big deal - long-term analysis predicts gold should achieve 5000 in 2026.

Gold pulling back to 4225 overnight, resistance near 4250, down to 4215. Trading in $50 range, consolidating, holding breath for Fed.

Stock market slightly lower ahead of tricky Fed meeting. S&P 500 down 0.1bp at 6845, Nasdaq down same at 25668.

Oracle announcement watched for AI trade clues - implied move about 10%. Last Oracle print had 36% rally.

Markets anticipating 89.9% likelihood Fed reduces rates by 25bps today. Key times: 1pm CT for rate decision, 1:30pm CT for Powell.

Powell could pull rug on market if very hawkish - if dot plot only prices in one cut in 2026, things could be problematic.

Overseas: Traders pricing virtually no cuts from ECB (stagflation period). Japan expected to increase rates. Australia expected 2 hikes next year.

Other markets in hiking campaign while US is cutting. Dollar index at 9917, Euro at 11634.

10-year Treasury yields at 4.2% - big breakout to upside. Over 4.25% will probably see turbulence in equity markets.

VIX at 1768, Bitcoin at 92500, S&P gamma exposure positive. European stocks slipped with anticipated Fed cut - concerns about global easing cycles ending.

Asian equities trading narrow range, MSCI Asia-Pacific up 0.2%. ETF flows: sold gold (14k oz), sold silver (1.1M oz), bought platinum/palladium.

Palladium holdings increased 1k oz - 5th straight day. Palladium at 1530. Gold/silver ratio at 68:1 (observation, not actionable).

Today: sit back, don't take risk, eat popcorn, watch. Maybe trim positions, put protection ahead of Fed meeting.

Hope to see material breakdown in equity markets for long-term dip buying opportunity (but hope not a strategy).