Lists three ingredients for end of bull market: 1) recession signs (not present given strong jobs), 2) Fed hiking rates (won't happen before midterms), 3) pressure on long-end yields (surprised by sedate US 10-year vs. exploding global yields).

The fourth ingredient is true investor FOMO driving overvaluation with capital market surge. Current FOMO over last two months has been in gold and silver, not stocks.

Characterizes stock market action as extraordinary FOMO, evidenced by year-to-date value outperforming, staples screaming higher (e.g., snack food price cuts driving stocks), while financials underperform.

Interprets this unusual rotation not as recession signal but as manifestation of AI disruption trade.