• Jeff, let's just talk about this. I know you're tracking it. Energy constraints. We were hoping that maybe this is something out in our future. Is it right here in our present?
    Jeff
  • Jeff Currie
    Oh, it's right here in our presence. It's discussion around data centers. You take gas. The constraint on there is gas turbines. It's grid. Grid is copper. We look at what's going on in the oil market this morning. Restrictions around ships, availability of ships, refineries. All of these old economy assets are really coming back to bite. When we look at the commodity complex, that bull market that started in gold is broadening. Not only has it included base metals, it also includes agriculture recently with a big move in soybeans and corn. Even US natural gas has joined the rally. I think the one big lagger is crude oil. We can talk about that later. I think when we look at the broader commodity complex in the equal weight to GSEI is up 25% this year. Physical constraints they're biting.
  • And Jeff, as you know, we went through an energy bust a decade ago. We did the same thing with other commodities as well. Anything tied to China went through a bust. And it brought a lot of discipline. to some of the miners out there, the REOs, the BHP, they shifted from volume to value. Jeff, they did that over the last decade or so. What if we build up to just how under-invested are we in the whole commodity complex?
    Jeff
  • Jeff Currie
    When we look at the growth in copper, we're within a year or so of being in peak supply there. We look at gold, gold cannot keep up with the demand from central banks. We look at crude oil. There's no investment on our horizon beyond March of next year for upstream. In fact, all new major projects in oil, there's zero available beginning next year in non-OPEC. Focus on returning value to shareholders, not overspending is now creating a deficit in supply.
  • How some of these miners and other commodity producers financing future exploration and build out so they can meet the increasing demand? Is it with debt? Is there a misdirection of people investing in data centers rather than new copper mines?
    Unknown
  • Jeff Currie
    Absolutely. Upstream investment needs cash flow to make investments, but prices are not high enough to stimulate that yet. Copper is getting around $11,000 a ton, making more projects feasible, but there is a limited project pipeline even if prices rise. Bottlenecks are at gas turbines (steel) and the grid (copper). Large CapEx spends ($300-400 billion) are going into commodities, hitting supply constraints, pushing prices higher. Commodities are the most undervalued assets, with oil being the most undervalued. Prices will rise as demand increases across base and precious metals. The broader supercycle in metals will continue throughout the decade.
  • Copper in London near $11K. What do you expect in the next 12-18 months?
    Jeff
  • Jeff Currie
    Looking 2-3 years out, target of around $15,000 a ton for copper. Demand destruction price is unclear. Refined product prices are dislocated above crude due to refinery capacity constraints. Refineries coming back online near year-end may translate product price upside into oil price. The broader commodity complex is moving: crude oil and natural gas have risen recently.
  • If copper moves from 11 to 15, how do you see demand destruction kicking in? Considering investment behind this story?
    Jeff
  • Jeff Currie
    Demand destruction will be a physical thing, not price-driven. New copper mines take 10-12 years to develop; supply can’t come quickly. Price level needed to cause substitution (e.g., to aluminum) estimated around $15,000 a ton. Other factors include dollar level and GDP. Risks are significantly to the upside given large CapEx spending. For investing, focus on raw materials for short-term price moves and commodity equities for long-term inflation expectations.
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