Industry sources say any additional American oil entry into Venezuela is not planned now, and if it happens, it could take a long time due to unclear leadership and instability.
Speaker1
Speaker2
It's a long road back for Venezuela; we don't know who's in charge. The country has post-conflict indicators with millions of weapons and criminal gangs running core parts of the economy with the military.
Speaker2
The political leadership for a turnaround is unclear, with key opposition figures not returning and potential reliance on figures from the previous regime posing a significant hurdle.
Oil initially sold off on the idea the US would be flooded with barrels, but the key question is when these barrels are really coming.
Speaker1
Speaker2
Venezuela's oil production fell from over 3 million barrels to around 800,000 after Hugo Chavez politicized and mismanaged the national oil company.
Speaker2
In a perfect scenario with stabilized security and full sanctions relief, you might get a couple hundred thousand barrels of low-hanging fruit in 12 to 18 months.
Speaker2
The idea of a million-barrel increase quickly is a pipe dream. A full recovery could take until the mid-2030s, similar to the unrealistic expectations for Libya post-Gaddafi.