As responsible investors, we had to have a hard look at our own assumptions. We started out bullish risk-on in equities. As of last week (12th March) we made an adjustment, moving to overweight Asia ex-Japan and neutral on Japan after a 40% gain. This is risk management, not risk-off.

The risk of a stagflation environment is real. We can't rule it out. Oil price feeds straight into CPI and consumption, unlike tariffs which have absorbers. First order: oil prices go up, hits feedstock, erodes margins. There will be winners and losers.

Everyone will be impacted. It's a relative game. Net oil importers (Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia) take the brunt first. China seems less affected on a relative basis as it has diversified energy sources, but global demand will impact China.

Our house view (OCBC Group) remains one Fed cut for the year. However, we are watchful on inflation prints as March/April will reflect higher prices. The narrative is shifting very quickly; we saw only one vote in favor of a cut at the last meeting.

We hold a longer-term view of dollar weakness, premised on US fiscal sustainability concerns. Right now there is concern over recession. We're not calling for short-term trading, but as portfolio allocators we are conscious of potential dollar weakness.

Gold is a strategic asset we would have in portfolios regardless of near-term pricing. It's a non-sovereign currency and its relationship with other asset classes in times of crisis is important.