Current yields price in sustained $85/bbl oil. If war goes beyond April and oil spikes to $100+ sustained, yields could go up significantly. However, greater global growth destruction from supply shock could then bring DM yields down.

Initial spike in treasury yields to ~4.5%, but eventual backup in yields as global growth destruction kicks in (PMIs already slowing). Yield curve may flatten then steepen.

Stagflation risk increasing by the week. Longer war affects petroleum derivatives, plastics, fertilizers. Increased probability if war lengthens into April.

Energy shock disproportionately affects non-US growth, weakening their currencies. DXY could go to 102-103. Once war ends, medium-term weaker USD thesis remains intact due to deteriorating US fiscal position and de-dollarization trends.