European stocks down again on trade tensions. Is this a buying opportunity?
Guy
Maria Vassalou
Probably not yet. Market compartmentalized political uncertainty last year, focusing on earnings and rates. Investors remember that game.
Maria Vassalou
What mattered last year was corporate earnings season. Tech CEOs said uncertainty high but profits strong, margins high, visibility good.
Maria Vassalou
Tech still fastest growing earnings sector (23-24% vs S&P 4.5%). Rotation will happen only when strong earnings delivery broadens outside tech.
Maria Vassalou
Higher yields less damaging to tech mega-caps due to large cash balances. Small caps more vulnerable to financing costs.
Maria Vassalou
If tech sells off, where do you go? Need strong earnings elsewhere. Without that, investors return to tech.
Maria Vassalou
European tech investment is about earnings stories, not diversification. Same trade: large cap, strong balance sheet, good earnings.