Introduces guest Bert Dohmen, highlighting his past crash predictions and his current warning of a 'deflationary depression' akin to the 1930s.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Claims the cancelled BLS jobs report is a benefit because the official statistics are lies. The real numbers can be found in non-seasonally adjusted data on their own site.
Asks if the Fed's sudden halt to QT is a panic signal due to bond market plumbing seizing up.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Argues the Fed's 'QT' is a lie. True tightening isn't happening because bank loans and M2 money supply are rising, which indicates loose money.
Asks how a bear argues against Nvidia's massive AI-driven earnings beat.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Says being bearish depends on timeframe. Retail traders can't beat HFT algorithms. The market is a chess game where opponents are trapped.
Asks who holds the bag in this chess game.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
The retail investor is always the bag holder. Nearly 100% of short-term trades are designed to fool the majority.
Asks if circular financing in AI is an 'Enron moment'.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Yes, it's the same gaming of the markets. Signals the market is ready for a serious down move, but not until 2026.
Asks about the mechanism for the 2026 break: credit event, liquidity freeze, or deflation shock?
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Many things can go wrong: geopolitics, speculative fever. AI will cause massive unemployment, leading to deflation.
Asks if gold-backed treasuries would be an admission the monetary system is failing.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
The dollar isn't weak; it's the cleanest shirt in the laundry. Demand will rise if US becomes a manufacturing haven.
Asks if the housing market is secretly insolvent, citing a fight over an $8.5 trillion FHA hole.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
The problem is mortgages. People are running out of money, citing 30-40% credit card rates and soaring insurance costs.
Asks what he watches daily in the mortgage/credit system.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Default rates, which are near all-time highs. His 'Doman Theory': only liquidity and credit matter for market direction.
Asks about insider selling and a 'fright economy' where smart money exits.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Confirms this is the 'distribution phase,' where smart money sells to naive retail, who become the bag holders all the way down.
Asks what a regular investor can do to avoid being the naive buyer.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Subscribe to his letter. The first rule is to focus on avoiding losses, not making profits. No leverage.
Asks if bond-side margin calls are the next danger from Treasury volatility.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Professionals use derivatives with 2% margin, but CEOs don't know their exposure. It's overly complex.
Asks about 'down gap openings' as manipulation to trap holders.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Big down gap openings are purposeful manipulation, not market forces. The market is almost totally manipulated short-term.
Asks if the safest move is to step aside until the system resets.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Why buy when markets are going down? 'Buy the dip' is wrong; 'you are the dip.' Technical analysis shows when a bear market starts.
Asks why he warns against tokenized gold like Tether Gold.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
You only have their word it's backed by gold. It's like selling the Brooklyn Bridge without evidence.
Asks about a potential year-end rally being a trap.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
Predicted a negative November to hit high-flyers, then a year-end rally as HFT picks up stocks cheap for institutional window-dressing.
Asks for one final principle for investors.
Jeremy
Bert Dohmen
This year, they got out of stocks before a correction and into another sector that gained 130%. Focus on lower risk, not just returns.