If oil prices remain at or above $100/barrel for an extended period, the impact on EBRD countries is +1% inflation and -0.4% growth on average.

The EBRD is preparing emergency support, liquidity, and working capital for private sector clients in affected countries, similar to lessons from Ukraine.

The fertilizer impact is already significant: 25-35% of fertilizer production feedstock comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like Kenya (30% dependent) will feel effects quickly, exacerbated by the spring planting season.