Questions Fed hold stance and references Stuart Paul's view for smooth transition calling for cut
Speaker1
Jordan Rochester
High conviction for December Fed cut, calls hawkish narrative silly given labor market weakness
Jordan Rochester
Expects strong Q1-Q2 growth from fiscal stimulus globally and monetary easing, but labor market weakness may drive more cuts
Questions if labor market dynamics require different interpretation due to supply and demand changes
Speaker1
Jordan Rochester
This is a cycle like no other with lower immigration and AI impact on employment
Asks how low rates can go without reigniting inflation
Speaker1
Jordan Rochester
Market typically bounces off 3% but now labor weakening suggests push to 2.75-2.50%
Jordan Rochester
Expects Fed to gradually lower neutral rate assumption from 3% to 2.5-2.75% in second half next year
Asks about UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves budget and gilt market risk premium
Speaker1
Jordan Rochester
Expects gilt sell-off if fiscal headroom number small (below 15-20B), positioning long gilts