How do you invest with such an activist presidency and intervention from the White House?
Anna
Ben Jones
Take a step back. Key trends are more defense spending, reshoring, and a more activist presidency, leading to more inflation and better nominal growth globally.
Ben Jones
A more siloed world means more inflation. That's a better backdrop for active investors, with opportunities in Europe and Asia, not just the US.
You're confident on US labor market strength. What are you seeing?
Tom
Ben Jones
NFIB small business survey shows more companies want to increase hiring and are struggling to find workers. Historically, this leads to a ~50bps drop in unemployment.
More inflation means rate hikes?
Guy
Ben Jones
Rate hikes should be on the table economically, but you have to throw the rules out. We've had 150bps of cuts since Sep '24, but 10-year yields are up.
Do you think we go back towards 5% on the 10-year?
Guy
Ben Jones
In the US, I think we head towards that sort of level.