Asks for the timeline to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and how long to get barrels back to market.
Tyler Kendall
Bob McNally
Based on June analysis consulting military officers, even prioritizing suppression of Iranian capabilities, the timeline is weeks. A 30-day scenario is now the base case. Many weeks of continued disruption expected.
Asks if oil could reach $150/barrel, doubting the impact of the IEA's 400M barrel release.
Joe Mathieu
Bob McNally
Oil prices will continue marching in the triple digits until a ceasefire or the 'iron law of economics' enforces demand destruction. Prices can go well into the mid-$100s and beyond to slow economic growth.
Asks if domestic producers will ramp up given price uncertainty and risk of government intervention.
Tyler Kendall
Bob McNally
Domestic producers will be cautious. After 20 years of volatility, they know price spikes signal impending crashes. They will hunker down rather than ramp up aggressively.
Asks if $4/gallon gasoline is next given triple-digit crude.
Joe Mathieu
Bob McNally
Yes, the national average will head to $4. We could see record highs beyond the 2022 peak because we are actually losing 20M bpd now with no end in sight.
Asks if government intervention in futures markets is the right move.
Joe Mathieu
Bob McNally
The federal government should not be involved in futures markets. It's dangerous to bet taxpayer money. He's told the rumor of intervention is not happening and hopes it's not.