Questions if the oil price will break higher despite apparent supply, and raises short-term political risk from Trump potentially releasing sanctioned oil to lower pump prices.
speaker1
Jeff Currie
Dismisses the oil glut narrative, citing lack of evidence, substantial inventory draws, and a large speculative short position that is now unwinding. Argues the core issue is chronic underinvestment across oil, metals, and the entire old economy.
Jeff Currie
States all commodity markets (oil, metals) are structurally short globally. Geopolitical risk incentivizes hoarding by major consumers (US, China, India, Europe), exacerbating tightness.
Jeff Currie
Describes a 'revenge of the old economy' rotation: Nasdaq down 9%, Metals & Mining up 25%, Energy up 22% - a >30% swing from new economy (asset-light tech) to old economy (asset-heavy commodities).
Notes the 2026 catalyst across commodities and asks how the investor base has shifted, suggesting 'tourists' (generalist investors) are now entering these markets.
speaker3
Jeff Currie
Argues massive capital rotation is *needed* out of tech/AI (new economy) and into commodities (old economy) to fund the physical infrastructure (data centers, grids, power) that AI demands.
Asks for a historical parallel for the current market dynamic and investor profile shift.
speaker3
Jeff Currie
Compares current period to 2000-2004, post-dot-com boom, which saw a violent rotation from internet (new economy) into old economy. Key difference: today's AI companies are 'putting steel in the ground' and will hit physical constraints, forcing the rotation.